By Darya Korsunskaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia has cut its forecast for 2025-2027 oil and gas export revenues, a key source of funding for the state budget, due to weaker oil prices, seeing the proceeds falling by 15% this year, according to an economy ministry document seen by Reuters.
The revision puts additional strain on the budget, already saddled with high defence spending on the war in Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump said this year lower oil prices could help end the war in Ukraine.
Russia expects to earn $200.3 billion this year from oil and gas export sales, 15% less than both 2024’s $235 billion and its previous estimates in September, the document of macroeconomic forecasts, on which the state budget is based, showed.
The government expects to earn $220.4 billion in 2026, $231 billion in 2027 and $244.1 billion in 2028, down 4% and 1.1% and up 2.6% respectively from previous estimates.
Proceeds from all oil and gas sales account for about a third of Russia’s state budget revenues.
The economy ministry has previously cut its 2025 oil price forecast by nearly 17%, and the Russian central bank warned earlier in April that oil prices could face a period of weakness for several years.
Urals prices fell to their lowest levels since 2023 in April at around $53 per barrel, and they traded below $60 last week.
The ministry also cut its forecast for 2025 Russian oil production to 516 million tons (10.32 million barrels per day), flat year-on-year and down from an earlier forecast of 518.6 million tons, the document showed.
Pipeline gas exports, which had collapsed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, will recover in 2025 to 89.1 billion cubic metres from 80.6 bcm in 2024 and 69.3 bcm in 2023, the document showed.
(Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya; Editing by Jan Harvey)
Comments